UK companies face another bumpy ride in 2024. Ahead of an expected recovery in 2025, UK businesses must first navigate a year of geopolitical and economic uncertainty, and a heightened risk of non-payment as insolvency rates peak at a 15-year record.
Around 31,000 UK business are expected to fail in 2024, a 10% increase on last year, according to our latest Global Insolvency Outlook. The expected rise would mark the fourth consecutive year of increased business insolvencies for the UK (following a 15% year-on-year increase in 2023, 53% in 2022, and 9% in 2021) and would push business insolvency levels to 43% above 2019 levels, the highest in Europe alongside Ireland.
Last year, which ended with a 50-quarter high in UK business insolvencies, was challenging for various sectors of the British economy. The hospitality industry in England and Wales experienced a 27% increase in insolvencies year-on-year, with 2,418 restaurants alone declared insolvent (that’s more than 6 per day), a staggering 40% increase compared to the previous year. Chemical manufacturing, agricultural, food, and transport sectors all experienced double digit increases in the number of insolvencies in 2023.
After a succession of challenges (Brexit-related issues, Covid-19, inflation and interest rate hikes), UK firms will continue to struggle as the economic outlook for 2024 remains weak. We forecast 2024 GDP growth for the UK at +0.6% compared with +1.4% in the US and +0.8% in the Eurozone. UK insolvencies will remain high in 2025, although we expect them to fall back slightly (-6% to 29,000) as the economic and financing outlook will only moderately improve.