ECONOMIC RESEARCH

| Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Philippines

Manfred Stamer, Senior Economist for Emerging Europe and the Middle East, explains.

| China

We now expect the Chinese economy to fully resume only in June.

| Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Vietnam, Philippines

Emerging markets have unequal capabilities to fight a pandemic.

| China, Japan, India

Epidemiological data suggest that few countries are already in a position to start deconfining.

| China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Featured Reports, Vietnam, Philippines

Managing the reproduction rate of the virus effectively will mean most economies will function at 70% to 80% of their potential for two-three quarters.

| China, Hong Kong, Singapore, Featured Reports

Global demand in air transport will not return to its pre-Covid-19 level before 2023.

| China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Malaysia, Thailand, Indonesia, India, Featured Reports

As the Covid-19 pandemic pushes the global economy into the worst recession since WWII, systemic social risk could become a more important factor of political risk and worsen the business climate in some countries.

| China, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, Featured Reports

Our proprietary Trade Momentum Index shows that Q2 is likely to see an even stronger contraction.

| China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Japan, Singapore, Featured Reports

The Covid-19 pandemic represents a historic window of opportunity to accelerate the global transition to a net zero emission society.

| Featured Reports

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.