EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
- Climate policy is the missing piece of the puzzle ahead of France’s Presidential elections. France has set ambitous targets to combat climate change, including reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by -40% by 2030 compared to 1990. But its green transition has hit several stumbling blocks in recent years due low incentives to involve the private sector and insufficient funding for green policies. Despite several major programs, including the France Relance 2021-2023 (EUR30bn dedicated to green transition), France 2030 (50% of EUR54bn towards climate objectives) and the Resilience Plan (launched in March to cushion households and companies from surging energy prices after the invasion of Ukraine), France urgently needs to accelerate on two goals: significantly reducing final energy demand and decarbonizing energy production.
- None of the candidates for the upcoming election has a clear roadmap for accelerating the green transition. Most candidates agree with the need to achieve this goal, but each lands on a different energy mix to do so, with the main divisions relating to the role of nuclear power and certain renewable sources (wind turbines in particular), as well as the rate of reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In addition, with the exception of the Green (EELV) and far-left (LFI) parties, presidential candidates give few clear details on how to significantly reduce energy consumption and develop renewable energy. All candidates also talk about implementing a carbon tax at the (EU) border to improve the competitiveness of goods produced locally but present it as a measure to boost industrial competitiveness, with no recognition of the negative purchasing power effect on households. Also missing are measures to enhance institutional capacity and the statistical reporting on mobility and commuting patterns, which will be key to match government support with actual energy-consumption needs.
- This matters because current French policy targets are not sufficient for limiting global warming below 1.5°C. We estimate the investment gap at EUR17bn per year, or 0.7% of GDP. A 1.5°C compatible 2030 domestic target for France would entail a -52-66% reduction below 1990 levels. A sufficient target of 62% below 1990 levels would be around 210 MtCO₂e, leaving an ambition gap of around 119 MtCO₂e for French climate policy. To reach net-zero emissions, France would need to decrease the primary consumption of coal for energy production by -80% compared to 2012, and more than double the speed of reducing final energy use compared to the pre-2019 period. All sectors have to contribute to the reduction in final energy demand but road transportation, steel and chemicals and residential energy use will have to achieve the biggest declines.
