Allianz Trade Country Risk Atlas 2026

Allianz Trade has published its third annual Country Risk Atlas, a flagship report assessing economic outlook, risks, and opportunities across 83 countries representing approximately 94% of global GDP. The Atlas is based on a proprietary risk ratings model updated quarterly with the latest economic developments and Allianz Trade’s proprietary data.

"Our ratings provide comprehensive analysis of the economic, political, and business environment, as well as sustainability factors influencing non-payment risk at a macroeconomic level. Each rating combines 17 short-term and 18 medium-term indicators, serving decision-makers as a pragmatic compass in a polycrisis world – helping to navigate volatility, protect cash flows, and turn risk awareness into competitive advantage," explains Luca Moneta, Senior Economist for Emerging Markets at Allianz Trade.

Global country risk improved in 2025 – against expectations

Despite intense trade tensions and multiple layers of political, geopolitical, and fiscal risk, Allianz Trade finds that global country risk improved in 2025. The company upgraded 36 country risk ratings while downgrading only 14. This trend reflects the fiscal, monetary, and trade-related coping mechanisms that tend to emerge in times of high uncertainty. Upgraded economies include Argentina, Ecuador, Hungary, Italy, Spain, Türkiye, and Vietnam.

"In 2025, upgrades were driven primarily by stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, supported by more accommodative fiscal and monetary policies. In several emerging markets, better financing conditions, appreciating local currencies, and higher commodity prices allowed for a rollback of transfer and convertibility restrictions – a key dimension of political risk. Among high-income economies, improved political stability, disinflation, and stronger trade performance reinforced resilience across Europe – notably Germany, Greece, Italy, and Spain – and the Asia-Pacific region, including South Korea and Vietnam," states Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

Broad improvements mask persistent medium-term risks for corporates

While the number of downgrades may appear low, it has nearly tripled compared to 2024 – rising from 5 to 14. Notably, France, Belgium, and the US are among the downgraded economies, highlighting persistent medium-term headwinds for corporates.

"Resilience is broadening, but risk clusters persist in important economies. Last year, we saw a deterioration in the medium-term macroeconomic environment in 7 markets, compared with 18 that improved. However, these deteriorations include Belgium, Brazil, France, and the US, which together account for about one-third of global GDP, meaning ten times as much as the economies that improved. The global economy is undergoing one of its most turbulent periods in decades, with a convergence of shocks and structural shifts: AI, demographics, climate change, trade, and regulation. Uncertainty remains elevated, and corporates must adopt a selective, country-by-country approach to expand their business while safeguarding their assets. This underlines the need for granular, forward-looking risk management that goes beyond headline ratings. Continuous monitoring of transfer and convertibility conditions, fiscal trajectories, and trade exposures will be essential to anticipate turning points," concludes Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade.