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How to make a cash flow forecast

Even profitable and successful companies can be weakened when faced with late payments or a customer insolvency. There is much to do to protect your business: picking the right customers to trade with, implementing processes to ensure invoices will be paid on time, integrating cash flow management in all your investment decisions, or subscribing a trade credit insurance policy.

But it all starts with having an up-to-date cash flow statement and creating a cash flow forecast. Let’s have a look at how to calculate cash flow and how to make a cash flow projection.

Why is cash flow management so crucial?

Running out of cash if the top reason why small businesses fail. A regular supply of cash is vital to any organisation, so that it can pay salaries and bills, as well as invest in growth. Even companies that manage to make a lot of sales can become insolvent if cash flow is disrupted, for example in case of unpaid invoices.

This is why tracking your cash flow each month is essential. By analysing what happened the previous month and creating a cash flow forecast of the months to come, you’ll be able to spot trends, anticipate when your business might need more cash and prevent cash flow problems. Another advantage of a cash flow forecast can also be to help you define the best moment to invest, such as buying a new expensive software or piece of machinery.

How to calculate cash flow and the forecast

Before making a cash flow projection, you first need to know how to calculate cash flow.

Net cash flow calculation

Calculating cash flow is simply a matter of comparing cash coming in with cash going out over a time period (for example, the past three months). The net cash flow formula is: Cash Received – Cash Spent = Net Cash Flow.

Cash received corresponds to your revenue from settled invoices, while cash spent corresponds to your business’ liabilities (costs such as accounts payable, interest payable, incomes taxes payable, notes payable or wages/salaries payable).

So long as the first number is bigger than the latter, you have positive cash flow, meaning you have cash in the bank. If your cash flow is negative, it means you finish the period with less cash than the beginning.

Free cash flow calculation

For a deeper understanding of how much cash is available for you to spend, you can us the following free cash flow forecast formula:

Net income + Depreciation/Amortization – Change in working capital – Capital expenditures = Free Cash Flow

To help you use this formula, here are some common cash flow management definitions:

  • ‘Net income’ is obtained by taking the revenue from sales and subtracting to this number the cost of goods sold, selling, general, administrative and operating expenses, interest, taxes and other expenses.
  • ‘Depreciation/Amortization’ are like scheduled expenses used to reduce the carrying or market value of some assets.
  • ‘Change in working capital’ stands for the difference between current assets (such as cash, customers’ unpaid bills, inventories of raw materials or finished goods) and current liabilities (such as accounts payable).
  • ‘Capital expenditures’ are the funds you used to acquire, upgrade and maintain physical assets such as property, buildings, technology or equipment.

Once you comprehend how to calculate cash flow, it’s easier to understand how to forecast future cash flows.

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How to create a cash flow projection

A cash flow projection uses estimated figures to give you an idea of what’s in store over the coming weeks and months.

There are several methods for cash flow forecast. Here is one method, which is very simple:

  1. Pick a timescale – for example six months in the future – and estimate the value of your transactions over that period.
  2. List the cash you would receive:
    • Start with a sales forecast (especially recurring invoices, which you can predict with some certainty)
    • Add other inflows such as investments, grants, asset sales and tax rebates
  3. Separately, list the cash you would spend: future overheads, including salaries, rent, hardware, software and tax.
  4. Use the Net Cash Flow Forecast formula see above to work out if you will have a positive or negative cash flow over the selected period: Cash Received – Cash Spent = Net Cash Flow
Cash flow forecast and projection example chart

‘Sales paid’ is the amount of cash received in a given month for goods/services supplied during that month. The “75%” note indicates that only three-quarters of the cash due for sales made in any month will be received during that month.

‘Collections of credit sales’ refers to the amount of cash received during a given month for goods/services that were supplied in previous months.

Thanks to your cash flow forecast, you can see whether you will have positive or negative cash flow over the coming months. In case of negative cash flow, you can take appropriate measures to prevent cash flow forecast problems.

Despite your predictions and your cash flow forecast, unforeseen circumstances can still occur. You should never wait to be in trouble to protect your business. The good news is that there are various options to consider from improving your cash flow forecast management processes, to keeping a buffer for rainy days or turning to trade credit insurance. To go further, you can also have a look at our cash flow management guide.

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Export credit insurance helps companies remain competitive by offering open terms when letters of credit or prepayment may have previously been the only safe way to do business. In fact, foreign companies buy an average of 40 percent more when they are offered open terms, according to the World Trade Organization. Export credit insurance providers protect your sales from political risks, including import/export changes and foreign government intervention. Whether you have export credit insurance or not, there are still many ways you can take steps to mitigate risk while doing business internationally. Exercising the following precautions of credit management can only benefit your business and help you protect your cash flow and finances while expanding your growth even more.