What to watch: Deals, deals, deals!

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What to watch?
US-China deal: A welcome truce but the trade war is still on. Effective for 90 days (until 12 August), the US will reduce its effective import tariff rate on China from 103% to 39% – but this is still higher than the 13% rate before President Trump’s second term and the highest rate applied on any trade partner.
US-UK deal: A small reprieve for the UK’s struggling export sector. The UK’s goods trade deficit has increased steadily over the past two decades (-8% of GDP since Brexit in 2021), hit by the double whammy of growing trade imbalances with the EU and real exchange rate appreciation.
US-Middle East deal(s): Investment deals to pump up oil prices and reduce fiscal pressures on the region? President Trump’s trip to Gulf countries kicked off with Saudi Arabia committing USD600bn in investments in the US over the next decade, part of a broader pact that includes US defense sales valued at nearly USD142bn.