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Dan North Chief Economist

Our Economist: Dan North

Dan North, Chief Economist Euler Hermes North America

About Dan North

Since 1996, Dan North has been with Allianz Trade, the world’s oldest and largest credit insurance company. As the company’s senior economist for North America, he uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Allianz Trade’ risk portfolio of over $170B in U.S. trade transactions.

As one of the leading U.S. economists, Dan North has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, ABC News Now, France 24, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by USA Today, Barron’s, Bloomberg Business Week, The Washington Post, Paris Le Monde, and The Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, Dan North was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.

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Dan's Latest Update - Risk Management

With a cyclical economy, we continue to observe a significant surge in the volume and size of claims filed by our customers in North America. To illustrate the sector volatility throughout the past few years, here’s an overview of the claims trends and the current risk assessments from 2022 to June 2024.
Click the button below to download the full risk management update
Risk Management Update

Dan's Latest Insights

man standing in port with shipping containers in background

Oct 09, 2024

Big Jobs Report, and Two Big Risks Mitigated

The economy created 254,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 150,000. Job creation was led by the usual industry suspects of health care (45,000), leisure and hospitality (78,000), and government (31,000). August’s job count was revised up by 17,000 while July’s was revised up by a very strong 55,000.

It’s hard to argue that over the past six months, job creation hasn’t been on an upward trajectory. But looking back over a longer period, using a three-month rolling average to smooth the data out, it’s clear that over the past few years, not just six months, job creation has been slowing.

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two colleagues talking in office

Sep 26, 2024

Fed Goes Big

As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds interest rate by 0.5% (or 50 bps) at its September meeting.

Outside of the emergency cuts during the Covid era, it was the first reduction in five years, and it came after the Fed had gone on an aggressive campaign of raising rates to fend off inflation.

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man and woman looking at paper while walking in factory

Sep 12, 2024

Labor Market Continues to Wane

The August employment report was somewhat weaker than expected, depicting a slowing labor market.

The economy created 142,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations of 160,000 jobs. In the larger picture, job creation is definitively slowing. 

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airport with sunset in background

Jul 25, 2024

See You In September

Conditions are coming together which make an interest rate cut likely at the Federal Reserve’s meeting in September. Inflation is continuing to slow, while the economy continues to exhibit limp, but mostly stable growth.

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human looking at receipt in grocery store

Jun 18, 2024

Fed Gets More Hawkish Even as Inflation Slows

May saw a slight moderation in consumer inflation, with the consumer price index (CPI) remaining unchanged on a month-over-month basis and inching down to 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. This is still above the Fed's target of 2.0%, as it was the 12th consecutive month it has wandered between 3.0% and 3.7%. In other words, it has gone nowhere in 12 months. 

"Core" inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, showed more promise, cooling to 3.5% on a year-over-year basis, and unlike the headline, does appear to be making progress towards that target. But you wouldn't know that from the Fed's last meeting 

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calm water with city in background

Jun 13, 2024

The Bank of Canada is the First to Cut

The Bank of Canada (BoC) became the first bank in the G7 to cut interest rates, dropping the overnight rate by 0.25%. It was the first rate cut (excluding Covid) since 2015.

It also marked only the second start of a rate-cutting cycle since the beginning of the Great Recession.

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man and woman in factory

Jun 05, 2024

Fed Down to One Cut

April's report on personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and personal income (PI) are no longer showing that perfect balance. Inflation isn't budging and remains well above the target, and the economy is continuing to slow. It's not the combination the Fed wants to see. 

Inflation is still well entrenched in the landscape, and it is not falling fast enough. 

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