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Dan North Chief Economist

Our Economist: Dan North

Dan North, Chief Economist Euler Hermes North America

About Dan North

Since 1996, Dan North has been with Allianz Trade, the world’s oldest and largest credit insurance company. As the company’s senior economist for North America, he uses macroeconomic and quantitative analyses to help manage Allianz Trade’ risk portfolio of over $170B in U.S. trade transactions.

As one of the leading U.S. economists, Dan North has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, ABC News Now, France 24, and Bloomberg Radio and Television. He has been quoted by USA Today, Barron’s, Bloomberg Business Week, The Washington Post, Paris Le Monde, and The Wall Street Journal. After having predicted the 2008/2009 recession and its implications accurately, Dan North was ranked 4th on Bloomberg’s list of the 65 top economic forecasters in 2010.

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Dan's Latest Update - Risk Management

With a cyclical economy, we continue to observe a significant surge in the volume and size of claims filed by our customers in North America. To illustrate the sector volatility throughout the past few years, here’s an overview of the claims trends and the current risk assessments from 2022 to June 2024.
Click the button below to download the full risk management update
Risk Management Update

Dan's Latest Insights

two men looking at tablet

Dec 18, 2024

Unexciting Employment Report Cements The Next Fed Cut

The November employment report failed to produce its usual excitement. Most of the important data was close to expectations, including the number of jobs created (227,000), the unemployment rate (4.2%), and wage growth (4.0% year over year), etc.
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woman shopping in department store

Dec 09, 2024

More Inflation, Holiday Sales Mostly Soggy

Inflation continues to roll along undisturbed, apparently ignorant of, or not caring about, anything that might otherwise influence it.

The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) headline price index grew 0.2% month over month as expected in October, bumping the year-over-year rate up 0.2% to 2.3%—the wrong way. The core index, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% as expected, pushing the year-over-year rate up 0.1% to 2.8%, also the wrong way. In addition, core prices have remained in a narrow range for six consecutive months.

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two workers loading a van

Nov 26, 2024

Consumers Keep Rolling Along Despite Irritating Inflation

On a month-over-month basis, retail sales rose 0.4% in October, faster than expectations of 0.3%, and September was revised up sharply from 0.4% to 0.8%.

On a year-over-year basis, sales beat expectations and grew 2.8%.

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airport with sunset in background

Nov 18, 2024

Fed Cuts, But Might Slow Down

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve Bank cut the overnight fed funds rate by 0.25% (25 basis points, or bps) to a range of 4.50% to 4.75%. The cut was exactly what had been anticipated for weeks, and it was the usual-size cut instead of the jumbo 50 bps cut in September.

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man standing in port with shipping containers in background

Oct 09, 2024

Big Jobs Report, and Two Big Risks Mitigated

The economy created 254,000 jobs last month, far above forecasts of 150,000. Job creation was led by the usual industry suspects of health care (45,000), leisure and hospitality (78,000), and government (31,000). August’s job count was revised up by 17,000 while July’s was revised up by a very strong 55,000.

It’s hard to argue that over the past six months, job creation hasn’t been on an upward trajectory. But looking back over a longer period, using a three-month rolling average to smooth the data out, it’s clear that over the past few years, not just six months, job creation has been slowing.

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two colleagues talking in office

Sep 26, 2024

Fed Goes Big

As widely expected, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) of the Federal Reserve cut the fed funds interest rate by 0.5% (or 50 bps) at its September meeting.

Outside of the emergency cuts during the Covid era, it was the first reduction in five years, and it came after the Fed had gone on an aggressive campaign of raising rates to fend off inflation.

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man and woman looking at paper while walking in factory

Sep 12, 2024

Labor Market Continues to Wane

The August employment report was somewhat weaker than expected, depicting a slowing labor market.

The economy created 142,000 jobs in August, significantly below expectations of 160,000 jobs. In the larger picture, job creation is definitively slowing. 

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