Economic Insights

Economic outlook energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

Sep 15, 2022

Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality.

The cost of semiconductor shortages on the European automotive sector

Sep 13, 2022

Missing chips cost EUR100bn to the European auto sector

The automotive industry has been the number one casualty of the global semiconductor crunch, which led to a shortfall of about 18mn vehicles around the world.

Italy will hold snap elections on September 25.

Sep 09, 2022

Italy’s elections: snapping back?

In Italy, a right-wing coalition is leading the polls and likely to secure the parliamentary majority in the snap elections on 25 September.

Sep 07, 2022

Double trouble? Inflation means less cash and more debt for companies

In the US and Eurozone, cash buffers are waning as working capital requirements and interest expenses rise but sectors now face differentiated risks.

Sep 01, 2022

Averting Gasmageddon and securing a just transition

The number of households in energy poverty in the EU28 has increased by more than +50% until June 2022 but worse is still to come.

Green infrastructure investment is essential in the US and Eurozone.

Aug 30, 2022

Green infrastructure investment: The public sector cannot do it alone

Current public investment plans alone will not be sufficient to close the estimated green investment gap.

Jul 28, 2022

How to ease inflation? Non-tariff barriers to trade in the spotlight

We find that reducing non-tariff measures to trade to below 50% could knock at least -2pp off inflation in the US and -4.5pp in the EU.

Jul 26, 2022

High yield: have the tourists left?

The aggregate quality of high yield credit remains relatively strong, with leverage, coverage, liquidity and profitability ratios remaining close to their highest levels in decades.

Jul 21, 2022

Eurozone: watch credit conditions!

With the ECB hiking interest rates for the first time in over 11 years, could tightening financial conditions spark a credit crunch?