Economic Insights

Jul 09, 2020

Coping with Covid-19 in differing ways

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.

Jul 08, 2020

Brexit: Trade tricks won't be enough

According to our calculations, the aggressive trade policy pursued by the UK could lead to a +2.2% increase in import prices over a year, and be negative for competitiveness abroad

Jul 03, 2020

Chinese banks put to the test of RMB8tn of Covid-19 problematic loans

The ongoing credit easing amid the Covid-19 shock will worsen banks’ asset quality.

Jul 01, 2020

Allianz Global Insurance Report 2020: Skyfall

Global premium income is expected to shrink by -3.8% in 2020.

Jun 30, 2020

Money is power: Can a country's culture increase the risk of payment defaults?

The strength of social hierarchy matters for insured trade credit defaults

Jun 25, 2020

When Main Street makes it to Wall Street

New retail investors could explain the current decoupling between the U.S. equity market and economic fundamentals.

Jun 19, 2020

Construction companies in Europe: Size does matter

Covid-19 is sparking a profitability shock for SMEs in the construction sector.

Jun 17, 2020

The risk of 9 million zombie jobs in Europe

We estimate that 20% of those currently enrolled in short-work schemes face an elevated risk of becoming unemployed in 2021 because of the muted recovery in late bloomer sectors and the policy cliff effect.

Jun 12, 2020

Equity markets: Have policymakers created Pavlovian markets?

Wall Street is responding faster and faster to counter-cyclical policies, as if it was 100% sure that past experience is a sure guide to the future.