Navigating international trade in 2026:
Your roadmap to export success

12 June 2025

As businesses look to 2026, the landscape of international trade is shifting dramatically. Our roadmap provides actionable steps to help companies expand globally in the next 12 months.

The outlook for international trade is evolving at pace. In the US, the Trump administration announced on 2 April 2025 so-called “reciprocal tariffs” – hiking tariffs on US imports and thus introducing sweeping new trade restrictions for industries and key trading partners worldwide. Dubbed “Liberation Day”, 2 April marked a historic upheaval of US trade policy – further reigniting the US-China trade dispute, disrupting supply chains, and injecting fresh volatility into international markets. There has been some respite in recent months as the US has rowed back and agreed deals with various countries, including China, but the tariff landscape remains volatile.

The latest Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025 has gathered insights from around 4,500 companies across nine major economies, assessing the toll of “Liberation Day” on the outlook for international trade. The findings are stark, with confidence amongst exporters taking a huge hit. The survey’s top-line findings show that less than half of businesses expect positive export growth in the next 12 months, compared with 80% before “Liberation Day”.

However, amid this turbulence there are opportunities. While the US is rewriting the playbook for international trade, new opportunities are emerging, and proactive businesses are adjusting their strategies. For companies aiming to address these challenges and effectively navigate current uncertainties, we have developed a strategic roadmap. Highlighting key trends, risks, and areas to watch, we provide actionable steps to expand globally with resilience and preparedness in the year ahead.

According to the  Allianz Global Trade Survey 2025, 42% of exporters now expect their turnover to decline between -2% and -10% over the next 12 months. This is compared with fewer than 5% that expected turnover to drop prior to “Liberation Day”. This is a sharp

change, driven by huge US import tariff increases and the resulting deterioration in business sentiment among exporters globally.

In this recessionary environment, companies can consider reassessing their sales and demand projections and adopt more conservative forecasts, especially in sectors that are most exposed to US trade policy fluctuations, in machinery and equipment or automotives, for example. To stay competitive, businesses may benefit from more agile planning frameworks – designed deliberately to withstand the impact from rapidly changing levels of demand, tariffs, and currency fluctuations that are becoming the norm.

Adaptability in operations could be a crucial strength in the year ahead, with rising tariffs and foreign exchange (FX) volatility encouraging more companies to rethink how and where they operate. The survey reveals that 27% of businesses are prepared to temporarily halt production as FX volatility exacerbates the cost of higher tariffs, while 32% plan to stop imports or halt offshore production. In terms of companies’ plans to invest, optimization is the focus across the board; however, the strategies differ between regions. In Germany, for example, 45% of companies are prioritizing operational efficiency by cutting costs. Meanwhile, in China, 77% of firms are looking at diversification – exploring new business lines and making targeted investments in strategic areas.

To succeed in these circumstances, businesses should consider conducting regular operational audits to uncover inefficiencies and identify ways to save costs. Investing in automation, for example, could be a prudent strategy for streamlining certain processes, especially in labour-intensive industries like manufacturing. Meanwhile, companies could practice nearshoring to reduce their reliance on long and fragile supply chains – boosting operational efficiency while lowering risk exposure.

As global trade uncertainties deepen, so do companies’ payment challenges. The survey shows that over half of exporters now face extended payments terms, with payment delays exceeding seven days in half of the cases. Larger businesses are seeing longer delays, with 26% of companies with a turnover of more than EUR 5 billion facing payment terms in excess of 70 days, compared with 18% of firms overall.

With less certainty and more payment delays, financing via payment terms is declining. More companies are choosing alternative methods, such as internal cash flows or bank loans. The survey shows that even before “Liberation Day” just 14% of exporters chose payment terms as their top financing option, with cash flows (21%) and bank loans (18%) the preferred methods. Meanwhile, non-payment risks are rising. Nearly half of exporters now anticipate higher non-payments risks, with companies in the US, UK, and Italy particularly affected.

Companies should consider taking steps to protect liquidity. In the short-term, you can look at renegotiating terms and credit insurance to secure payments and protect receivables. Longer-term, improving cash flow forecasting and diversifying your sources of finance can help you weather payment disruptions. In uncertain times, staying flexible and forward-thinking is key. Trade credit insurance can help you navigate unpredictability, reduce the risk of insolvency, and uncover growth opportunities.

The tariff landscape is ever-changing. Most notable is the 39% US effective tariff rate on Chinese imports, down from a staggering 103% before a bilateral deal was reached in mid-May 2025, but still +26 percentage points higher than before Trump’s second term.

As a result, companies are actively rerouting international shipments and “frontloading” imports to manage costs. The survey finds that 79% of US companies began frontloading imports from China before the “Liberation Day” tariffs kicked in, while 25% were even more proactive – beginning frontloading before the US presidential election in November 2024. Meanwhile, after “Liberation Day”, 62% of US firms said they would look for alternative shipping routes to reduce customs costs.

Many businesses are also moving to Delivered Duty Paid (DDP) Incoterms, handing back the responsibility of managing the logistics and costs (including at customs) of shipments to sellers, and thereby letting them take full control of customs-related risks. In addition, 59% of companies said they now include pricing clauses in contracts to hedge against currency risks.

Businesses looking to mitigate tariffs and build resilience should consider a supply chain strategy that combines these factors: frontloading, rerouting, and pricing adjustments. Scenario planning and stress testing can help to model the impact of new tariffs and regulatory changes on shipping costs going forward. Discover how Allianz Trade’s insurer-backed surety solutions deliver the flexibility and reliability businesses need to thrive.

As the US and China untangle their economies, global trade flows are likely to reorient themselves. The survey shows one-third of companies are already diversifying – looking for new markets both to export to and receive supply from – and almost two thirds are planning to do so. In the US, the survey suggests companies are focussing more on Western Europe and South America, while exporters in China are pulling back from the US to strengthen trade links with Europe and Southeast Asia. These regions now represent emerging opportunities for exporters worldwide.

As businesses look to expand globally in 2026, they’re having to navigate considerable uncertainty. The findings of the Allianz Trade Global Survey 2025 outline a turbulent environment for international trade. Yet opportunities do exist, and exporting success in the year ahead will favour companies that plan strategically, adapt quickly to evolving circumstances, and diversify effectively. By staying proactive rather than reactive, you can tackle tariff turmoil with confidence and turn international trade volatility to your advantage.