Economic Insights

Nov 10, 2022

Fixed income is back

In 2023, fixed income should regain some attractiveness from a risk-adjusted perspective and may prove interesting in the current volatile environment.

Nov 09, 2022

US midterms: Republicans are back, (fiscal) policy impasses too

With the Republicans now controlling the US House, political gridlocks mean no major economic and fiscal legislation will be pushed through in the next two years.

Nov 04, 2022

EU fiscal rules – quo vadis?

The EU Commission is expected to propose the most ambitious overhaul of the European fiscal framework in more than two decades.

Nov 03, 2022

Picking up contagion in equity and commodity markets

Our contagion indicator, albeit now lower than in early 2009, has not fallen to the lower levels experienced in 1982 or 2003. The time may have come to start building up long positions, but it still looks too early to go “all-in”.

Oct 28, 2022

Brazilian elections: the calm before the storm?

Unlike in previous elections, there are few signs of politically driven stress on Brazilian markets. Yet, Brazilian markets are in for a reality check in 2023.

Oct 27, 2022

Energy crisis, interest rates shock and untampered recession could trigger a wave of bankruptcies

After two years of declines, we expect a broad-based acceleration in business insolvencies (+10% in 2022 and +19% in 2023 at a global level).

Oct 21, 2022

Market Volatility and Corporate Bonds: Collateral Damage

ver the last few months, more aggressive monetary tightening, especially in the US, has led a steep sell-off in public debt markets, resulting in unprecedented interest rate volatility.

Oct 20, 2022

Can the booming battery sector help Europe with its energy crisis?

The global energy storage market is expected to grow 15 to 19-fold by 2030, mostly stemming from the US and China, with cumulative energy storage capacity totaling 400 to 500 GW.

Oct 14, 2022

‘Whatever it takes’ reloaded? Europe’s fiscal response to the energy crisis

While fiscal support in Europe will significantly reduce the impact of higher energy prices on real disposable incomes and soften the blow on demand, it could slow down the reduction in inflation rates.