Economic Insights

Oct 14, 2022

‘Whatever it takes’ reloaded? Europe’s fiscal response to the energy crisis

While fiscal support in Europe will significantly reduce the impact of higher energy prices on real disposable incomes and soften the blow on demand, it could slow down the reduction in inflation rates.

Oct 12, 2022

Allianz Global Wealth Report 2022: The last hurrah

Global financial assets are set to decline by more than -2% in 2022, the first significant destruction of financial wealth since the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) in 2008.

Oct 05, 2022

Globalization 2.0: Can the US and EU really “friendshore” away from China?

Globalization is changing, not dying, but mounting geopolitical tensions are pushing the US and Europe towards reducing their dependence on China. Yet ‘friendshoring’ is easier said than done.

Oct 04, 2022

Bond market meltdown in the UK: a first post mortem and key takeaways

The gilt crash in the UK was not a repeat of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis, but rather a liquidity-induced market accident that put financial stability at risk.

Sep 30, 2022

Eurozone public debt: The interest rates reality check

Rising interest rates are a reality check for Eurozone public debt. But our interactive debt tool shows that France, Italy and Spain will struggle to bring down debt levels.

Sep 29, 2022

Reverse currency war puts emerging markets at risk

The combination of tighter global financial conditions and persistently weak risk sentiment favors a substantially stronger US dollar and thus puts increasing pressure on many emerging markets with unsustainable external imbalances.

US housing market: The first collateral victim of the Fed

Sep 22, 2022

US housing market: The first victim of the Fed

Real property prices are set to decline by -15% in the next 12 months, pushing the US economy into a recession.

The container shipping industry is benefiting from record-high freight rates

Sep 20, 2022

Shipping: liners swimming in money but supply chains sinking

After almost doubling its revenues in 2021, the global container shipping sector is heading for another record year as freight rates show no sign of slowing down.

Economic outlook energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

Sep 15, 2022

Lights out! Energy crisis, policy mistakes and uncertainty

As Russian gas supply is coming to a halt, the fight against inflation is raging and political uncertainties coalesce, our previous adverse scenario has become reality.