Economic Insights

Inflation outlook for the US and Eurozone

Apr 15, 2021

Demystifying the four horsemen of the inflation apocalypse

We expect inflation will only stage a temporary overshoot in the US and briefly hit the ECB’s “below, but close to, 2%” target in the Eurozone in 2021

Apr 12, 2021

Taper Tantrum in 2021-22: Beware of the TUCKANS

We find 7 Emerging Markets are particularly vulnerable to an eventual tapering of monetary policy by the US Fed.

Apr 07, 2021

Unleashing excess foreign exchange reserves to boost growth in Latin America

In 2021, Latin American countries could be holding "excess" FX reserves of around 8.8% of GDP, with an opportunity cost to economic activity as high as 0.7% of GDP.

Apr 06, 2021

Joe Biden's infrastructure plan: defying gravity

Biden’s USD2.3trn ‘Build Back Better’ plan represents the second stage of a three-phase stimulus rocket and will be a long-term driver of growth in the US.

Apr 01, 2021

Race to the post Covid-19 recovery: 7 obstacles to overcome

The pace of vaccination campaigns will drive a multi-speed recovery, keeping divergence high.

Suez Canal block and supply chain disruption

Mar 26, 2021

The Suez Canal ship is not the only thing clogging global trade

Supply-chain disruptions since the beginning of the year could cost USD230bn.

Mar 23, 2021

The Hotel California effect: How the European hospitality sector is looking for people who stay

The recovery will be patchy and only partial in 2021.

Mar 22, 2021

China's policy mix: "proactive" and "prudent" in name, tightening in practice

With domestic and external conditions ripe for authorities to tighten the policy mix, Chinese stimulus will not be saving the global economy this time round.

Mar 17, 2021

Show me the money: debunking a couple of myths about excess liquidity

It is quite easy to overestimate or underestimate money growth and therefore underestimate the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for inflation.