Economic Insights

Mar 15, 2021

The irony of Biden’s super stimulus: USD360bn for exporters around the world

President Biden’s USD1.9tn stimulus is set to create a positive confidence effect on US domestic demand, part of which will be absorbed by exporters across the world.

Mar 11, 2021

Commodities: higher demand, supply bottlenecks, but no speculation (yet)

Since the lows of May 2020, commodity prices have increased to record highs.

Mar 08, 2021

US yield curve: Let’s twist again?

Bond vigilantes are testing the US Fed's commitment to long-lasting loose monetary policy.

Mar 05, 2021

Tourism: Europe will be at the frontline of the recovery, but only in 2024

As governments race to contain new and more contagious variants of Covid-19, ‘travel passes’ or ‘vaccine passports’ won’t be enough to revive tourism.

Mar 03, 2021

The not so merry adventures of the Robin Hood generation in financial markets

The recent US equity market rally highlights the rise of a new kind of “all-in” retail investor, one that is ramping up leveraged trading through the derivatives market.

Feb 25, 2021

Covid-19 one year on: 1.8 million additional long-term unemployed in Europe

We see a heightened risk that the cyclical labor market shock turns structural, with unemployment stabilizing at an elevated level.

Feb 24, 2021

European corporates: (active) cash is king

European non-financial corporates have seized the opportunity of state-guaranteed loans to build up excess cash reserves, especially in France, the UK and Italy.

Feb 23, 2021

QE and the bull market in everything but diversification

By triggering a fresh, global and pronounced round of QE, the Covid-19 crisis has struck another heavy blow to diversification.

Feb 18, 2021

Risk literacy and choices - Stubbing toes in the dark

We surveyed nearly 7,000 people in seven countries to find out about risk literacy during the Covid-19 crisis.