Economic Insights

Jul 27, 2020

Covid-19 to increase firms’ liquidity needs to a record USD8tn as payment delays and inventories surge

The prolonged supply-chain disruption likely due to future targeted lockdowns and companies’ precautionary stockpiling will push inventories up in H2 2020.

Jul 22, 2020

Bruised but not beaten, Europe’s textile industry is a perfect candidate for a greener and digital recovery

An unprecedented disruption in trade, manufacturing and retail activities, followed by a major economic crisis, will send the turnover of the European textile and apparel industry down by -19% in 2020.

Jul 16, 2020

Calm before the storm: Covid-19 and the business insolvency time bomb

The Covid-19 shock will trigger a worldwide wave of business insolvencies

Jul 16, 2020

European banks: Could EUR300bn of additional NPLs crunch the recovery in Europe?

Unprecedented policy support may not be enough to shield European banks from the real economy’s woes.

Jul 15, 2020

Covid-19: Contagion risks also apply to markets

Increased tail co-movements between asset classes indicate the presence of a common risk factor.

Jul 09, 2020

Coping with Covid-19 in differing ways

The light and targeted lockdowns to fight the second wave of Covid-19 infections will constrain the pace of recovery. We expect global GDP to contract by -4.7% in 2020, followed by growth of +4.8% in 2021.

Jul 08, 2020

Brexit: Trade tricks won't be enough

According to our calculations, the aggressive trade policy pursued by the UK could lead to a +2.2% increase in import prices over a year, and be negative for competitiveness abroad

Jul 03, 2020

Chinese banks put to the test of RMB8tn of Covid-19 problematic loans

The ongoing credit easing amid the Covid-19 shock will worsen banks’ asset quality.

Jul 01, 2020

Allianz Global Insurance Report 2020: Skyfall

Global premium income is expected to shrink by -3.8% in 2020.