Economic Insights

Nov 20, 2020

Saving Christmas: a EUR18bn challenge for French non-essential retailers

Restrictions on non-essential stores in France ahead of a critical Christmas season are casting a shadow over nearly EUR18bn of retail sales that are normally made in November and December.

Nov 19, 2020

Financial and risk literacy survey: resilience in times of Corona

At least 55% of the respondents in each of the seven countries we surveyed reported the pandemic to be the most impactful economic event of their lifetime

Nov 17, 2020

EU carbon border adjustments and developing country exports: saving the worst for the last

The introduction of an EU carbon border adjustment mechanism will come with a high cost for African trade partners and the Arab states of the Persian gulf.

Nov 17, 2020

RCEP: Common rule of origin could boost regional trade by around USD90bn annually

The RCEP will cover around 30% of world GDP and population, making it the largest trade deal by these measures.

Nov 16, 2020

Emerging Europe: The balance of risks is tilted to the downside

New lockdowns will send Emerging Europe into a double-dip recession in Q4.

Nov 11, 2020

Zero interest rates: redistribution through the backdoor

Zero interest rates have resulted in the “transfer” of billions of euros from private households to the state and corporate sector. The intermediating banks, too, have suffered in the process, big time.

Nov 10, 2020

Emerging markets: heading for a China-less recovery?

Angola, Kenya, Ethiopia, Ecuador and Ghana, along with Brazil and South Africa, could struggle to find alternative international sources for funding, investment and trade to sustain their economic growth.

Nov 09, 2020

Joe Biden's victory: reconciliation economics

Part of Biden's program will entail reducing inequalities and redistributing wealth without over-penalizing companies

Nov 06, 2020

The U.S. elections turn into a judiciary battle: What’s next?

The political situation in the U.S. could be frozen until January 2021, even as government intervention is urgently needed to smooth the economic impact of a second Covid-19 wave.