Executive Summary
A faint glimmer of optimism. For the seventh year in a row, we surveyed 6,000 people in some of Europe’s largest economies (Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Poland, and Austria) to take the pulse on future prospects, policymaking and the rise of AI. Although pessimists still predominate, their lead has narrowed significantly compared to last year, from -23.0% to -8.3%. In Germany, this figure has fallen by 17pps. Germany is the only country in our survey where assessments of the present and future diverge significantly, with the net percentage falling from -22.6% to -11.9%. This could be seen as a tentative sign of a new beginning.
The gender sentiment gap. On average, women are significantly more pessimistic than men about the future, both in general and personally. Overall, the gender gap amounts to 11.8pps. This reflects structural impediments: Despite progress in recent years towards reconciling work and family life, women still face more obstacles than men when it comes to achieving their goals. Coincidentally or not, the average unadjusted gender pay gap in the EU is 12%.
No green backlash. Just 23.6% of respondents believe that Europe should follow President Trump's shift in climate policy. Poland had the highest approval rating (30.5%), while Germany had the lowest (19.2%). Conversely, this also means that the overwhelming majority favor continuing – if not intensifying – Europe's current climate policy. Overall, support for EU climate policy is growing as the focus is shifting from emission reductions to promoting energy independence.
A question of moral attitude, not money. The proportion of respondents willing to accept price increases of over 10% for climate-friendly products has risen significantly, from 10.9% in 2024 to 17.5%. As in previous years, this willingness varies greatly by age: 23.4% of Gen Z respondents are willing to accept such price increases, compared to just 10.3% of Baby Boomers. Surprisingly, income hardly seems to matter. Among those who say they manage well on their income, 17.6% accept high price premiums for climate-friendly products, compared to 14.3% of those who say they manage with difficulty.
Europe’s geopolitical role: It’s complicated. 42.6% of respondents favor an independent Europe as a third power, alongside the US and China. However, a similar proportion (39.2%) argue in favor of joining one of the major blocs. Meanwhile, 18.2% of respondents did not have a clear position on this issue. The real surprise, however, is the proportion of respondents in favor of joining the Chinese power bloc: 24.1%, compared to 15.1% who see Europe as part of the US bloc. This majority with a friendly view of China exists in all countries. Last year, before Donald Trump was elected US President, the situation was exactly the opposite, with 20.4% favoring the US bloc and 7.9% favoring the Chinese bloc.
Divided over defense. 33.9% of respondents see defense as a priority for the coming years. Last year, this figure was 26.6%. However, reducing dependencies on goods, raw materials and technologies through an active industrial policy is considered an even greater priority, with 39.2% of respondents. Furthermore, opinions on defense vary significantly by nationality and age, ranging from 21.1% of Italian respondents to 48.0% of Polish respondents, and from 27.9% of Gen Z to 44.8% of Baby Boomer respondents.
Results matter. Many surveys show that approval ratings for the EU are rising. Our Pulse does not. This year, for the first time, the majority of respondents saw more disadvantages than advantages in EU membership, albeit by a very narrow margin of 0.4%. These significant differences are probably due to differences in methodology. Other surveys focus on soft factors such as image, trust and fundamental attitudes. We ask directly about the advantages and disadvantages of the EU and the euro to uncover the results of European policy and the concrete benefits it can bring.
Similar policy priorities. Inflation and the cost of living (27.2%) and jobs and the economy (14.6%) are the main concerns of respondents in all countries. Healthcare (9.6%) is the third biggest concern – ahead of immigration. However, views on immigration differ significantly between countries. It is the second most important issue in Germany and third in France, but barely registers in Italy (eighth) and Poland (seventh). The topic also ranks highly among right-leaning participants, with around 30% of far-right supporters in Spain, Germany and France.
Inequality drives polarization. When asked about polarization, the causes most often cited were inequality (33%) and demographic shifts (26%), while misinformation is ranked lowest. The perceived polarization is highest in Poland (22%) and Spain (21%) and lowest in France (11%) and Italy (13%). Zero-sum thinking also dominates the political conversation as younger generations exposed to lower GDP per capita growth (e.g., Germany, Spain) tend to support right-leaning parties, echoing findings from Harvard's Social Economics Lab on generational economic disillusionment.
Not easy on AI. Around 50% of our sample has a negative view of AI, albeit with some geographic differences. In Spain, it is 40%; in Poland, 45% and in Italy, 50%. Conversely, 58% of respondents in Germany have negative attitudes towards AI, a figure similar to those in Austria (57%) and France (53%). While many respondents recognize AI’s potential to improve healthcare, transportation and productivity, concerns about data misuse, job displacement and increased social inequality are at the forefront of people's minds. Job automation is another key concern: 54% of respondents viewed AI's economic impact negatively, 15% positively and 31% neutrally.