Three encouraging news came in from Brazil this week and bode well for the modest acceleration we forecast for next year. First, retail sales grew +0.1% m/m in October which brings the y/y growth to +4.2%, up from +2.2% in September. Overall, the outlook is improving for consumers, amid a low inflation environment (boosting real wages) and declining interest rates as monetary policy eases, helping the credit cycle. Yet, there remain some hindrances to a full-fledged ramping up of consumers: the unemployment rate remains high (11.6%) and consumer confidence still has to recover. The second news is the fourth consecutive policy interest rate cut of Banco do Brasil by 50bps to 4.50%, the lowest rate on record. It did not close the door to further cuts in 2020, but signaled a more cautious data-dependent approach; and it could start hiking only in 2021. The third news is the decision of ratings agency S&P to revise the country’s outlook to positive from stable, which could signal a future sovereign rating upgrade.
Authors
Georges Dib
