In Summary
Business insolvencies ended 2025 with an upside trend in most countries, despite already high levels. The first final data available for 2025 confirm our expectations of a +6% increase in global business insolvencies, with Western Europe (+6%) remaining a key contributor to the global trend, several Asian countries posting double-digit rises (five out of nine) and most advanced economies noticeably exceeding pre-pandemic numbers.
We expect a prolonged high level of insolvencies in 2026-2027. The global rise in insolvencies should continue for the fifth consecutive year in 2026, albeit at a slower pace of +3%, overshadowing ebbing insolvencies in most countries, before a more widespread but still limited downside trend in 2027 (-1%). The prolonged risk of non-payment (insolvencies of buyers) and supply-chain disruptions (insolvencies of suppliers) requires close monitoring of critical buyers and suppliers.
Importantly, large firms are not immune, with a record number of cases in the last quarter of 2025 (147) and for the full year (475, i.e. one case every 18 hours). Western Europe also stands out in our internal reporting on insolvencies of major companies – those with a turnover exceeding EUR50mn – leading both the rebound and the global count in the number of cases (311 cases). However, the Americas and China still recorded the biggest cases, together accounting for 17 of the top 20 insolvencies for the year. While large firms are often more exposed to global issues – from fragmentation and shifting trade patterns to geopolitical tensions, the digital disruption and the structural transformations of various sectors – this also underscores the risk of a domino effect on suppliers and subcontractors.
Services, construction and retail lead the global count (44% of the total), but they mask more fragilities in industrial sectors such as machinery & equipment, automotive and chemicals, in particular in Europe. In absolute terms, services (83) and retail (64) were the most affected sectors, particularly in Western Europe and North America, along with construction (62), especially in Western Europe and Asia. But this is partly because of business demographic factors as these sectors have more large-sized companies. In relative terms, retail looks overrepresented in the total number of large insolvencies, services is underrepresented and several other sectors are seeing large(r) increases and high(er) levels in comparison to historical standards and the existing stock of large firms. In Europe, this list now includes chemicals, metals, machinery & equipment, automotive, computers & telecom and electronics, as well as textiles.