Allianz Trade Global cash conversion cycle

More inventories increase resilience but slow cash realization

The global CCC rose by a moderate half a day in 2025, reaching 67 days of turnover – 3 days above the 10-year average and close to the 2023 high of 68 days. This trend shows no sign of easing and is primarily driven by companies building larger inventories to enhance resilience.

“Days Inventory Outstanding (DIO) now explains almost 80% of the CCC level. This reflects a fundamental change in corporates’ behavior: they are moving away from "just-in-time" efficiency toward "just-in-case" resilience. By building larger inventories, companies tie up more capital in stock that is not expected to be converted into cash quickly, in exchange for greater supply-chain security and flexibility against geopolitical uncertainty, supply-chain disruptions, and trade fragmentation. In other words, supply chains are no longer optimized only for cost. They are increasingly designed for security, resilience, and optionality”, explains Maxime Lemerle, Lead Analyst for insolvency research at Allianz Trade.

According to Allianz Trade, global DIO reached 53 days in 2025, stable compared to 2024 but well above the pre-pandemic average of 48 days. Meanwhile, DSO is not adding extra pressure on corporate cash flow: global payment terms increased slightly to 56.5 days (+0.3 days) last year, remaining stable at this level since 2022 and still 3 days below the pre-pandemic norm.

Sector divergence deepens as resilience reshapes supply chains

Globally, sector dispersion is particularly pronounced, suggesting a split between strategic sectors and the rest of the economy. For 25% of companies, the CCC is below 43 days; for another 25%, it exceeds 107 days. Of the 20 sectors analyzed by Allianz Trade, 12 extended their CCC while 8 recorded a decrease.

Sectors with longer CCCs (2025 vs. 2024):

• Automotive suppliers: +4 days
• Paper: +3 days
• Metals: +3 days
• Textile: +3 days

Sectors with shorter CCCs (2025 vs. 2024):

• Transport equipment: -6 days
• Computers & telecom: -4 days
• Energy: -3 days

“Industries most exposed to supply-chain fragmentation, particularly upstream manufacturing and industrial inputs, have increased inventory buffers, resulting in structurally higher working-capital requirements. By contrast, several strategically important sectors, including energy, transport equipment and digital infrastructure, have shortened their cash conversion cycles despite heightened geopolitical uncertainty. This likely reflects a combination of stronger pricing power, robust cash generation, supportive industrial policies, and sustained structural demand”, adds Maxime Lemerle.

What to expect for 2026?

Allianz Trade forecasts a moderate increase in CCC for 2026. Two factors will limit the rise: first, sectors most affected by the US-Iran conflict have limited room to accommodate a further rise in DIO before financing needs enter distress territory; second, the shock should be partly offset by continued private-sector spending on AI infrastructure and data centers, which supports computers & telecoms and software & IT, keeping a meaningful share of the economy on a compressing or at worst flat trajectory.

“On these assumptions, measures to reassess energy security, strategic inventories and supply-chain resilience, together with the direct fallout of the conflict, should push global DIO up by around +2 days. We estimate that each additional day of DIO translates into +1.16 days of CCC globally. This is quite far from what was witnessed after the 2022 shock, when CCC rose by +5 days”, ends Maxime Lemerle.