Allianz Trade Global Survey

Corporates remain confident about export growth but expect a rise in non-payment risk

"The Allianz Trade Global Survey shows that 75% of exporters still expect positive export growth in 2026," says Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO of Allianz Trade. "The impact of the Middle East conflict appears moderate, especially compared to the 2025 tariff shock, which caused expectations to drop by -40pp. Still, this optimism is fragile and could fade quickly if the conflict continues. Confidence has weakened most sharply in Vietnam, the United States, and Spain, where companies lost more than -10pp of confidence due to the conflict, while Chinese firms lost -9pp. The conflict has pushed geopolitical and political risk to the top of the threat list: 65% of companies now rank it as their leading concern, overtaking supply chain complexity and concentration (45%), which dominated in 2025 during the trade war. Supply-related risks – such as supplier bankruptcy and input shortages – have risen to second place at 57%. Notably, fewer than a quarter of companies are worried about energy or shipping disruptions, suggesting either confidence in their coping mechanisms or expectations that the conflict will be short-lived.”

Despite resilient confidence, the Middle East conflict is tightening trade finance conditions. Payment cycles are lengthening: the share of companies paid within 30 days has fallen from 10% to 7% since the conflict began, while those waiting beyond 70 days has risen from 15% to 24%. Looking ahead, 43% of companies expect payment terms to deteriorate further (+5pp vs pre-conflict). Non-payment risk has also worsened, with 40% of firms now expecting higher risk, up +6 pp. Pharmaceuticals, construction, and computers/telecom are the most exposed sectors, while larger companies face disproportionately longer payment cycles.

Companies respond with inventory building and supply chain diversification

Since the trade war began in 2025, firms have implemented mitigation strategies to adapt to the new environment. Companies with long supply chains have been the most reactive and notably more prone to source from new suppliers and reroute than the overall sample. The most common coping mechanisms are inventory building and diversification into new markets (64% each), followed by sourcing from new suppliers (63%). This points to a broad effort to de-risk both demand and supply exposure. Rerouting through third markets (57%) confirms that firms are also adapting logistics to bypass trade frictions.

"Since the Middle East conflict began, 50% of firms are seeking alternative shipping routes or carriers, especially in Vietnam (60%). The second most popular strategy (50%) is working with customs brokers to expediate clearance, especially in Vietnam (64%) and India (56%). Third is adjusting delivery schedules for 48% of them, mainly in France, Brazil, India, UK and US. By contrast, changes to Incoterms (36%) remain more limited, suggesting that contractual adjustments lag operational ones”, states Ano Kuhanathan, Head of corporate research at Allianz Trade.

The Middle East crisis has not undermined companies' outlook for global reshoring: 72% of exporters expect reshoring to continue at least at the current pace. However, the main constraints to reshoring remain concentrated in supplier-related issues such as lack of access or high quality domestic suppliers (around 83%) followed by production costs (67%) and lack of tax incentives or subsidies (61%). More complex supply chains are forcing firms to prioritize resilience in their investment strategies, focusing on market consolidation, new trade routes, and facility-building abroad.

Europe and Asia emerge as the top regions for future growth

The trade war has reduced the attractiveness of the United States for exporters: only 13% now consider it a growth market. Amid supply chain reconfiguration and recent free trade agreements (FTAs), Europe and Asia are emerging as priority destinations, as businesses seek stability and market openness.

Interest in Europe as an export destination has grown across the board. Singaporean exporters show the strongest increase (+10pp vs. 2025), followed by US exporters (+9pp). Asia remains the preferred offshore destination overall, though China's investment appeal has collapsed, with only 23% (-30pp from 2025) firms planning to increase their footprint, even if only 10% are actively planning to exit.

“Growth opportunities are being reinforced by a wave of new trade agreements: 93% of firms plan to expand on recently signed FTAs such as India-EU and MERCOSUR-EU, with India, Brazil, Vietnam and France emerging as priority markets. Yet the full potential of these agreements remains constrained: non-tariff barriers, particularly licensing and certification requirements, continue to be the dominant friction limiting firms from converting trade agreement access into actual export growth”, ends Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research at Allianz Trade.

Check out our full report to find out how corporates feel about…

• US tariffs: 80% of corporates have adjusted their trade and supply-chain routes since “Liberation Day” and 43% of companies still expect a net negative impact in 2026.
• Investment priorities vs a cost-cutting approach: The Middle East-driven input price spike is still being treated as transitory rather than structural.
• FX management and financing: Forecasting and risk-management, financial hedging and matching payments and receipts remain the top three strategies to maintain resilience amid the Middle East shock.
• Sustainability: Commitment to sustainability actions fell by -21pp across the board, but remained more resilient in Europe.
• AI adoption: Emerging economies lead the way, but ROI remains the main hurdle and the conflict is already weighing on optimism.