Global trade in 2026: Navigating volatility

By Allianz Trade editorial team - Published on 27 November 2025

Exporters face a challenging outlook. In 2026, strong insurance protections and smart risk management will be crucial for success in global trade.

Global trade growth is forecast to slow to 0.6% in 2026, down sharply from 2% in 2025, in volume terms. Trade disputes show little sign of easing. The effective US import tariff rate – already 11.2% in August 2025 – is expected to rise to 14% by the end of the year. 

Trade tariffs will continue to reshape the global flow of goods and services in 2026.  It’s likely their impact will be felt most acutely by export-focused countries. Vietnam, Canada and Mexico could in theory see their 2026 GDP growth hit by -0.4 to -1.3 percentage points (pp) due to the latest tariff hikes announced by the US. The cost for the US is estimated at -0.4 pp. 

Exporters themselves were able to mitigate the early shocks of US tariff hikes in 2025 by frontloading shipments, for instance, or by finding new routes into the US market at lower rates, notably via India, Mexico, Vietnam, and other Southeast Asian countries. 

But these activities have merely softened the blow. We now estimate that in about 77% of imported goods, tariffs are absorbed downstream by exporters, squeezing their profit margins, or passed on to US consumers. Meanwhile, only about 23% see US importing firms absorb the additional costs directly.  

For many exporters, then, tariffs are contributing to a global trade environment that’s more expensive and more uncertain. Emerging trade routes present new opportunities, but, overall, the picture is one of heightened financial and operational risks worldwide. 

Allianz Trade’s latest Global Insolvency Outlook report reveals perhaps the strongest warning that world trade has entered a prolonged period of volatility: global business insolvencies are rising fast. 

We forecast that insolvencies will rise by 6% in 2025, and by a further 5% in 2026. Next year will mark five consecutive years of increases to reach a record high number of bankruptcies, 24% higher than pre-pandemic levels. 

This trajectory shows that even as global GDP continues to grow modestly, businesses are struggling to stay afloat. Lower demand and the delayed impact of tariffs are pushing more firms closer to bankruptcy. The report shows that even larger companies are at risk, with 327 major insolvencies recorded over the first nine months of 2025, or roughly one every 20 hours. 

Insolvencies are rising across regions, with Asia and Western Europe particularly affected. In Asia, for example, our year-to-date data shows that insolvencies have risen by 33% in Hong Kong and Singapore; in Europe, Italy and Switzerland have seen 38% and 26% jumps respectively.  

Our data suggests countries with export-reliant economies could see the sharpest increases in insolvencies. In real terms, France could see an additional 6,000 insolvent companies by the end of 2025, Spain nearly 3,000, and Canada almost 2,000. 

Looking ahead, the bulk of the 2026 global increase in insolvencies is likely to come from the US and China. Tariffs protected many producers in these two major economies in 2025. However, as their impact wears off in 2026, we predict that the two countries will see insolvencies rise further by 8% and 10% respectively. 

In terms of sectors, automotive, construction, retail, and services have been badly affected. We estimate that around 2.1 million jobs are at risk, with 1.2 million in Europe alone. 

If insolvency rates reflect the health of global trade, our data suggests an ailing system. Exporters are now more exposed to economic and geopolitical shocks, and tariffs are forcing them to accept longer payment terms and operate on thinner margins. Having the right insurance protections in place is now essential for companies looking to stay resilient and grow in 2026.  

Volatility is the new normal in global trade. It’s no longer just a macro trend – a growing number of businesses are feeling the impact of global volatility day-to-day, whether that’s through longer payment terms, more fractious supply chains, or increased credit and non-payment risks. Today’s environment calls for effective insurance solutions – not as “nice-to-have” additional measures but as essential and strategic tools to boost business resilience. 

Trade credit insurance from Allianz Trade gives you the confidence you need to engage in global trade. In the face of global volatility, it protects your trade receivables from non-payment risks like buyer default or insolvency. If external pressures and market forces are squeezing your liquidity, trade credit insurance can help you secure financing, maintain cash flow, and continue exporting. 

Beyond trade credit insurance, surety bonds from Allianz Trade are increasingly important for exporters and contractors needing to show their financial strength and reliability in new markets and projects. Surety bonds provide assurances that you’ll meet your contractual obligations despite volatile conditions, potentially unlocking new opportunities that might otherwise be too risky. 

Meanwhile, Allianz Trade pay is our one-platform solution for B2B e-commerce. It enables real-time credit decisions, automated buyer ID fraud protection, and secure payments even across borders. For both buyers and sellers navigating volatile global conditions, Allianz Trade pay brings trust and security to online payments and keeps your business moving.

As we approach 2026, the outlook for global trade is mixed. Growth will be modest, insolvencies will remain high, and risks for businesses are complex. 

To ensure success in global trade, companies must be prepared. Allianz Trade’s smart risk management tools and strong insurance solutions, tailored to your needs, can help protect your operations and keep trade flowing. 

Discover our solutions today, and help your business trade with confidence in the year ahead.