Economic Insights

Mar 23, 2021

The Hotel California effect: How the European hospitality sector is looking for people who stay

The recovery will be patchy and only partial in 2021.

Mar 22, 2021

China's policy mix: "proactive" and "prudent" in name, tightening in practice

With domestic and external conditions ripe for authorities to tighten the policy mix, Chinese stimulus will not be saving the global economy this time round.

Mar 17, 2021

Show me the money: debunking a couple of myths about excess liquidity

It is quite easy to overestimate or underestimate money growth and therefore underestimate the uncertainty surrounding the outlook for inflation.

Mar 15, 2021

The irony of Biden’s super stimulus: USD360bn for exporters around the world

President Biden’s USD1.9tn stimulus is set to create a positive confidence effect on US domestic demand, part of which will be absorbed by exporters across the world.

Mar 11, 2021

Commodities: higher demand, supply bottlenecks, but no speculation (yet)

Since the lows of May 2020, commodity prices have increased to record highs.

Mar 08, 2021

US yield curve: Let’s twist again?

Bond vigilantes are testing the US Fed's commitment to long-lasting loose monetary policy.

Mar 05, 2021

Tourism: Europe will be at the frontline of the recovery, but only in 2024

As governments race to contain new and more contagious variants of Covid-19, ‘travel passes’ or ‘vaccine passports’ won’t be enough to revive tourism.

Mar 03, 2021

The not so merry adventures of the Robin Hood generation in financial markets

The recent US equity market rally highlights the rise of a new kind of “all-in” retail investor, one that is ramping up leveraged trading through the derivatives market.

Feb 25, 2021

Covid-19 one year on: 1.8 million additional long-term unemployed in Europe

We see a heightened risk that the cyclical labor market shock turns structural, with unemployment stabilizing at an elevated level.