Real personal consumption expenditures (PCE) gained +0.2% m/m in August, pushing the y/y rate up a notch to +3.0%, a significant improvement from +2.2% just six months ago. Real disposable income also gained +0.2% to +2.9% y/y. The personal savings rate held steady at +6.6%, indicating consumers were neither too frugal nor too lavish in their spending. On the inflation side, headline PCE prices slipped a notch to +2.2% y/y while the Fed’s favorite measure, the PCE core, remained at the Bank’s target of +2.0%. The September ISM manufacturing report remained at a very strong level of 59.8 despite falling -1.5 points. New orders declined -3.3 points but also stayed at a solid 61.9. Prices still remain high at 66.9 despite falling for the fourth straight month. Nine of the 10 components are above 50. Respondents to the survey continued to report strong demand, a shortage of labor, and ever increasing concerns from tariffs.
