Exports under pressure: sales down, risks up

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Key insights

Today, 42% of exporters are forecasting a fall in sales.
25% expect longer payment terms, and 48% fear an increase in payment defaults.
To survive, they are adapting, diversifying their partnerships, restructuring their logistics and integrating risk-sharing throughout the value chain.

Optimism at half-mast among exporters

According to our latest Global Trade Survey, export growth forecasts have fallen sharply:

At the beginning of 2024, 80% of companies were forecasting sales growth.
Today, this figure has fallen to 40%.
42% are now forecasting a drop of -2 to -10%.
Just a few months earlier, only 5% of them had considered this possibility.

4,500 companies were surveyed in 9 major world economies (including 6 European countries), representing almost 60% of global GDP.

Geopolitical context: the threat of tariffs

The survey was carried out before and after the April 2 announcement of new tariffs imposed by the United States.

However, it does not take into account the 50% tax on European products that Trump threatened to impose on July 9.

Despite recent bilateral agreements with the UK and China, we estimate that global export losses could reach $305 billion by 2025

Europe, particularly exposed

Johan Geeroms, our Director of Risk Underwriting Benelux: "Europe stands to lose $33 billion in exports. In Germany alone, the loss is expected to be $9 billion. Our study shows that more than half of exporters expect longer payment terms. In their view, the risk of payment defaults will also increase. Such uncertainty is detrimental to a healthy business environment."

The most exposed sectors are:

Mechanical engineering
Automotive industry

However, Johan Geeroms sees a glimmer of hope: "The planned increase in defense spending will stimulate economic growth in Europe. Especially if, for example, 50% of defense investments are made by European companies. This scenario could result in an extra percentage point of GDP growth for some countries."

Trade war: a reconfiguring world

US vs. China: the decoupling continues

After Liberation Day, only 10% of American companies still want to export to China.
On the Chinese side, exports to North America plummeted from 15% to 3%.

US companies leave Asia:

25% turn to Western Europe
25 % to Latin America

Europe looks to Asia

Interest in exporting to China climbs to 36%.
Interest in South and Southeast Asia doubled, reaching 14%.

Latin America, the unexpected winner

“In the meantime, Latin America is emerging as the winner of trade shifting and avoidance strategies: Chinese and European companies are turning to this region for lower-cost access to the US," said Françoise Huang, Senior Economist.

Extended payments and risk of non-payment

The trade war has changed the outlook for payment terms:

25% of exporters expect longer payment terms, of more than 7 days.
48% fear a rise in defaults, particularly in the US, Italy and the UK.
Only 11% of companies are still paid within 30 days. This figure is significantly lower for major exporters such as the USA, China and Germany.
The majority wait between 30 and 70 days. This figure is slightly higher in the UK (75%), France (73%), Italy (73%) and the USA (73%).

"Large companies are more often confronted with longer payment terms: 26% of companies surveyed with sales in excess of 5 billion euros have payment terms in excess of 70 days, compared with 18% for the average of the general sample. In other words, large companies are increasingly acting as invisible banks for smaller businesses. As exporters face longer payment cycles and increasing risks of insolvency, they are forced to pass on costs, enter new markets, and even rethink their entire international footprint," concludes Ana Boata, Head of Economic Research.

How are companies adapting?

"Companies are not standing still: they are adapting, diversifying their partnerships, restructuring their logistics and integrating risk-sharing throughout the value chain. Success increasingly depends on the ability to adapt", says Aylin Somersan Coqui, CEO.

Market diversification and supply chains

1/3 of companies have already found new export markets.
2/3 plan to diversify their customer base.
In Poland and Spain, companies are exploring new suppliers to limit the impact of customs duties.

New routes, new reflexes

62% of US companies opt for alternative shipping routes, thanks to :
- Lower shipping costs (-50% since early 2025)
- Lower oil prices (65-70 USD/barrel expected)
Companies are also asking their suppliers to take charge of logistics all the way to the end customer.
To manage currency risks, 59% prefer to include pricing clauses in their contracts.

Download our global trade survey report.

In the current economic and political climate, global exporters are not very optimistic. 42% are forecasting a fall in sales.

Do you want to know more about our global trade survey? Download the full report and gain valuable insights