·         The biggest export opportunities in 2025​

We gathered export risk and opportunity data across 18 sectors in 70 countries to help make trade forecasts for the year ahead.

This data revealed that the top export destination for UK-based companies in 2025 is the United States of America. Exporting to the USA from the UK is considered ‘low risk’ and the potential revenue is over three and a half times more than the destinations in second and third place: Germany and Ireland.

The sectors predicted to do best when the UK exports to the USA in 2025 are:

“The biggest risk we saw was, obviously, the outcome of the US election. This will have a potentially tremendous impact on the US economy, and extensively on the world economy. So, I invite you to be extremely mindful of the Trump victory.
 

“Trump has been known to deliver a harsh stance on global trade. For those who do not know, he says he will increase tariff rates on China’s imports by 60% and 10% on the rest of the world, including Europe and the UK.”

If Trump increases trade tariffs from 2.5% to 4.5% - which looks more likely than his campaign pledge of 10% - we see a 79% correlation between the US imposing tariffs on China and the EU imposing similar tariffs one year later, and a 76% correlation between this happening the same year¹.

However, the UK left the EU in January 2020, leaving us to make our own decisions. So, should you trust the risk and opportunity data and take the chance of exporting to the USA from the UK, or is the political risk too much?

Well, recession risks in the US are rising, but the economy is still within the range of a soft landing. Strong household and corporate finances, a rising trend in manufacturing investment and the technology sector support this view. However, US consumption is expected to slow further in the next year in line with the slowdown of earnings growth².

Ultimately, the decision will come down to your circumstances and how protected your business is to take calculated growth risks. However, opportunities are still there to be taken.

Mark Burkett, Export Specialist and Business Owner, Department for Business and Trade, also spoke at the export webinar. He said that:

“America is a fantastic place to trade. I traded there myself and it was a fantastic business opportunity for me. But, let me tell you, America is 50 different countries… every state has its own regulations, even down to the way people communicate. While a great opportunity, you need to understand the cultural risks as well.”

“Most goods that are successfully sold in the UK can potentially be sold in other countries.
 

“However, some may need alteration or modification e.g. technical specifications, packaging, or user instructions.

“Local culture, infrastructure, laws, and climate may affect customer requirements and expectations.

“Successful exporting requires careful market research.”

In March 2025, the UK government will launch a million-pound initiative to help British companies that provide offshore wind products and services expand into international markets.

Announced by The Department for Business and Trade, the program will be implemented by the Offshore Renewable Energy (ORE) Catapult. The key aims are to guide companies through regulatory and market challenges, as well as to cultivate opportunities in diverse countries such as Australia, India, and Japan.

Stephen Wyatt, Director of Strategy and Emerging Technology at ORE Catapult, said:

"We're delighted to be working with the government on this exciting programme."

"The UK is a world leader in offshore wind, and we now have the opportunity to translate two decades of experience into new export opportunities for UK companies.

"Our work will help markets overseas accelerate their plans to develop offshore wind and pinpoint key areas, such as floating wind, project development, and operations and maintenance, where the UK's leading companies can also flourish overseas."

"This collaboration represents a welcome economic growth initiative, providing clear leadership, enhanced market visibility and invaluable support for UK companies interested in entering these fast-growing international markets."

A further export opportunity can be seen for low-carbon technologies and services. A report by the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit (ECIU), titled The Net Zero-Trade Nexus, found that 94% of UK exports go to 146 countries or jurisdictions that have net-zero emissions targets.

It emphasises the opportunity for UK exporters of low-carbon technologies and services to sell to these decarbonising countries.

The ECIU’s Director, Peter Chalkley, said:

“The transition to net-zero is an unstoppable global megatrend with renewables set to dominate power generation and EVs transportation.

“The UK is well positioned to capitalise on these growth markets, in part to help offset decline in demand for high carbon products.”

At the end of 2024, the Prime Minister announced that UK-India trade talks would relaunch in the new year. He said that the UK is committed to negotiating a trade deal with India which is one of the fastest growing economies in the world. There is also hope to deepen cooperation on security, education, technology, and climate change.

Prime Minister Keir Starmer said:

“Boosting economic growth is key to improving living standards for working people.

“A new trade deal with India will support jobs and prosperity in the UK – and represent a step forward in our mission to deliver growth and opportunity across our country.”

“India is the fifth largest economy in the world and a vital trading partner for the UK. We believe there is a good deal to be done here that works for both nations.

“Whether it’s lowering Indian tariffs to help British firms export to this dynamic market or boosting investment which already supports over 600,000 jobs across both countries, striking a deal is important to deliver this Government’s core mission of driving economic growth.”

If you’re considering growing your business and taking advantage of export opportunities in 2025, we can help. Not only can we provide leading export credit insurance for insights and protection, but our Trade Match research is open source and can be used by anyone to inform export strategies for growth.

We’ve a simple three-step process to export success:

1. Prioritise which countries to target
2. Prioritise which sectors to target
3. Understand the role of export credit insurance

For more information or a free export trade credit insurance consultation, call our UK team or request contact.

Source:

^{1: https://www.allianz.com/en/economic_research/insights/publications/specials_fmo/241114-global-trade-report.html}

^{2: https://www.allianz-trade.com/en_GB/insights/economic-research/global-economic-outlook-2024-2026-the-great-balancing-act.html}