Since his inauguration on the 20th January 2025, US President Donald Trump has been causing shockwaves across the world with his strong opinions and controversial political approach.

Since day one, the term ‘trade war’ has been observed in press titles alongside his name. Something that has many businesses considering political risk and the influence it could have on international business.

Here, we provide a political risk definition, explain the types of political risk, and share how Allianz Trade can support your business through turbulent times.

Summary

  • Political risk is unpredictable, but there are key signs to look out for.
  • The biggest political risk is a change in government and the new and amended policies that come with this.
  • Monitoring risk and protecting your business with insurance can help you grow with confidence.

     

‘Political risk’ refers to the possibility that your business could suffer because of instability or political changes in a country.

Political risk examples include: conflicts and unrest, changes in regime or government, changes in international policies or relations between countries, as well as changes that occur in a country's policies, business laws or investment regulations.

Other influential factors contributing to political risk include any other situation which may have an influence on a country’s economy, such as commodity price volatility, liquidity crises, and sectoral downturns.

Think of conflicts across the globe, confiscation of assets by local governments, and disputes over natural resources among nations. These may sound like unique political risks to international business, but they can still affect local businesses, who may not see them coming.

“When it comes to political risk, we say it could be defined to a certain extent by its unpredictability.” says Pierre Lamourelle, Deputy Global Head of Specialty Credit within Allianz Trade for Multinationals and a 25-year veteran of political risk assessment and management.

“Contrary to most other types of insurance, it’s not always possible to model this type of risk based on historic data.”

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There are many kinds of political risks that can impact business, such as:

War, terrorism, and civil unrest

Some geopolitical risks result from war, terrorism, and civil unrest – a political risk map.

“Look at what happened during the Arab Sprin in 2011 or what is happening in Ukraine.” says Pierre, referring to the Russian invasion of its neighbour.

 “Political unrest in Ukraine creates a very volatile environment for companies with interests in the region. They faced the potential for damage to assets through political violence and possible broader expropriation measures.”

Geopolitical decisions made by governments

There are a variety of geopolitical decisions governments make at all levels that can create political risk and affect individual businesses, such as: foreign trade policies, tariffs, legal and regulatory constraints, tax regulations, and currency controls. 

“The embargo of Qatar by its neighbours and the commercial tensions between the US, China, and Russia are also examples of what political risk is for business.” Pierre points out.

Sanctions

Sanctions are another political risk in international business.

“Typically, we expect our insured to comply with international laws, so were they to breach a sanction, that would not be covered. […] And on top of that, if an insurer were to pay out on a sanction contract, the insurer would also be exposed to those international sanctions.”

Jurisdictional risk

Jurisdictional risk is also a major political threat in international business, whether your company is an SME looking to expand or a global multi-billion-pound company.

“Jurisdiction” refers to the laws that will govern the agreement you sign with your partner. When that partner’s in another country, difficulties can arise should the terms of the contract begin to unravel.

Knowing how to deal with the complexity of the local legal environment can make a big difference in your ability to withstand and manage political risks. International risk insurers such as Allianz Trade have people on the ground in more than 40 countries dealing with political risks of all types.

We’re now living in a more connected world than ever before.

On the upside, that means business is easier to conduct on a global scale.

On the downside, this means that when something goes wrong in one part of the world, you can feel the impact halfway around the globe.

Political risk management is essential to assess the risks and define actions to protect your company.

Import/Export issues

In today’s globalised economy, competition between countries and alliances can be intense. Sometimes, businesses become caught in the political crossfire.

If sanctions or other restrictive measures are imposed on these activities, key supply chains may be disrupted, and saleable goods may lose value. In the most extreme cases, entire enterprises can grind to a halt. A comprehensive insurance policy can help firms manage the inherent risks of international trade.

For example, since entering administration, President Trump has made executive orders to impose a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods and a 10% tax on energy products from Canada and a range of Chinese goods. This has led to uproar. Beijing stated that they could file a lawsuit with the World Trade Organisation for wrongful practice, and the countries have threatened retaliative taxes.

This uncertainty has left many internationally trading businesses in limbo.

Restriction on currency exchange or transfer

International monetary policy can have a direct impact on businesses.

Many countries with developing or transitional economies use foreign exchange controls to limit speculation against their currencies. These countries are known as “Article 14” countries and include major global players like China, India, and South Africa.

In certain circumstances, exchange controls can prevent firms from remitting proceeds from overseas operations. That can impede cash flow and threaten profitability.

Political risk cover, as part of trade credit insurance, can enable affected companies to restore shareholder dividends, loan payments, and other essential payables.

Political unrest and forced exit

From mineral resources to human talent, there are numerous reasons that businesses may expand into developing markets. However, high-growth opportunities often come with higher risks of political conflict, instability and violence.

Because these threats are unpredictable and complex, standalone insurance policies may not address all the ways that operations could be affected. Allianz Trade’s cover is designed to provide a broader scope of protection for companies operating in emerging markets. If this interests you, please simply ask to add this on to your policy.

Expropriation and discrimination

At times, foreign governments may act to seize the assets of companies operating within its borders. This is known as direct expropriation and is generally allowed under international law if the seizure is for public benefit and the firm is fairly compensated. But sometimes, the compensation isn’t fair – or it isn’t provided at all.

In other cases, businesses can face indirect expropriation (a.k.a. regulatory taking), where they retain the title to their assets but are deprived of the revenues they generate. The right insurance policy can help firms to mitigate against both types of expropriation.

Often, risks mean reward. However, with unpredictable world power players like Trump, anticipating risk can be tricky. Sometimes the risks may be just rumours. That’s why you need an experienced team on your side who can help cut through the noise.

Some of the early signs of political risk are political, economic, and social instability:

  • The political situation in the country - how is the country behaving with its neighbours? You want to be prepared if there’s an escalation of tensions or a war.
  • The economic conditions - what are the macroeconomic imbalances? How stable is the economy? What is the ability of the country to honour its payment obligations or debt over the period of your project?
  • The social conditions - is youth unemployment or underemployment high? Are social tensions erupting into violence?

As the world leader in trade credit insurance, we offer political risk coverage for exporters with trade credit insurance policies. We help clients around the world manage their current risks and protect their future cash flow. If you’d like to manage risk, protect your operations, and grow your business, contact us get your price indicator today.

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Allianz Trade is the global leader in trade credit insurance and credit management, offering tailored solutions to mitigate the risks associated with bad debt, thereby ensuring the financial stability of businesses. Our products and services help companies with risk management, cash flow management, accounts receivables protection, Surety bonds, Business Fraud Insurance,  debt collection processes and  e-commerce credit insurance ensuring the financial resilience for our client’s businesses. Our expertise in risk mitigation and finance positions us as trusted advisors, enabling businesses aspiring for global success to expand into international markets with confidence.

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