Just 3 weeks before the next general elections, the ANC dominance is expected to remain - and economic stagnation as well. The mother of all the bottlenecks is access to power (electricity output was cut by -4.4% since 2011). Affordability is structurally poor and deteriorated even further since 64% of the production capacity was available in Q1 (75% is the long-term average). Eskom will need fresh cash in order to improve access to power, a burden that will be at least partially met by public finance. The fiscal deficit should deteriorate to -5% of GDP in 2019 and public debt is expected to reach 60% of GDP by year-end. Moreover, low power supply is also cutting growth prospects, particularly in power-intensive mining and manufacturing sectors (with likely output q/q decreases by -2.5% and -1.5% in Q1 respectively). As a result, the Q1 GDP is expected to post another negative figure to about -0.5% (18H1 was already a recession) and 2019 growth to be capped at +1% (-0.5% per capita).
