During the last weeks, Zimbabwe, Tunisia, Sudan and Algeria faced significant public demonstrations. In each of these countries, public finance, including subsidy levels, faced scrutiny. As a subset of shocks (from the 2011 Arab Spring to the fall of commodity prices from 2014) cut export revenues, it exposed many countries to an acute rise of their public debt, which now needs to be stabilized. Egypt was a blueprint for this, since subsidy cuts were introduced from November 2016 and successfully helped to revert public debt dynamics. In January 2019, Zimbabwe tripled gasoline prices (public debt is 78% of GDP), then protests turned to Tunisia, where the government intended to progressively cut subsidies. They ended with civil servants wage growth (public debt is expected at 82% of GDP in 2019). The last bout of protests hit Sudan after the decision to cut subsidies on bread prices (public debt should reach 180% of GDP in 2019). As debt sustainability becomes an issue, fiscal consolidation attempts may well have consequences for other African economies.
