Exports made their best start since 2011, with gains of +EUR9bn in the first four months of 2019. Grain and luxury were the most unexpected overperformers. Africa made +EUR850mn of export gains, the first increase since 2015 mainly explained by rising grain exports in a region affected by poor rains. Overall, luxury is the strongest overperformer with +EUR2bn of additional exports, perhaps reflecting a flight to quality in a world economy surrounded by multiple economic uncertainties. Aeronautics (+EUR2.8bn) and chemicals (+EUR1.7bn) were the other two strong (usual) performers. Otherwise, concerns remain in the car value chain, since French car suppliers’ export losses widened to -EUR0.4 bn. In the EU, the UK (+EUR1.8bn, in precautionary stockpiling nurtured by the first Brexit deadline) and Italy (+EUR0.7bn despite poor GDP growth prospects of +0.2% in 2019) accounted for the largest export gains. Outside of the EU, China (+EUR1.3bn) and the U.S. (+EUR1.1bn) took these roles. Overall, we expect lower export growth in H2 and French export gains to reach +EUR14bn in 2019.
